Spotify has removed more than 500,000 registered streams from Malcolm Todd‘s Earrings, after the song’s rise to No. 1 on the platform’s daily US chart was tied to bets placed on the prediction market Kalshi.
Kalshi is a US prediction market, regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, on which users stake real money on future events – including which song will be the most-streamed on Spotify in the US in a given month.
This appears to create a troubling incentive: a trader holding a large enough position on a track hitting No. 1 could attempt to profit by buying artificial streams to push it there, with the potential winnings dwarfing the cost of the fake plays.
The surge in plays of Earrings was first reported by the Financial Times, which said streams of the track had climbed around 70% in a single day to reach No. 1 on Monday (June 29) for the first time.
Bloomberg reported that Spotify spotted and removed more than 500,000 artificial streams that it did not believe came from genuine listeners, citing a person familiar with the matter, with the track falling back to No. 4.
“All streaming services face ever-changing stream manipulation,” Spotify said in a statement. “Spotify has best in class detection and mitigation practices for manipulated streams, and we don’t pay out associated royalties.”
There is no suggestion that Todd or his team was involved in the manipulation.
Spotify has also demanded both Kalshi and Polymarket remove its logo from their sites, in a drive to make clear that neither company has a partnership with the streaming service.
Kalshi‘s COO and co-founder, Luana Lopes Lara, told Billboard in late April that, at that point, trading on the platform’s music ‘contracts’ had already topped USD $400 million in 2026.
By the time the streams for Earrings were stripped, the inflated figures had already been used to settle a Kalshi market on the most-streamed Spotify song in the US in June – a ‘contract’ that had attracted around USD $3 million in trading, according to Bloomberg.
Kalshi had already paid out bettors on the market based on the flawed figures before the manipulation was confirmed.
“We’re in touch with Spotify and are actively investigating this matter,” a Kalshi spokesperson said.
Earrings had sat inside the top five of Spotify‘s daily US chart for weeks before the one-day spike.
The suspicious activity was reportedly flagged to Spotify by a Kalshi trader who analyzes the service’s streaming data to place bets on its charts, and who questioned how Earrings could have topped them.
Earrings originally appeared on Todd‘s 2024 mixtape Sweet Boy, and was released as a single to US pop radio on April 14 by Columbia Records, part of Sony Music, following a resurgence on TikTok.
A source at Spotify told The Hollywood Reporter that the company would begin “adding additional checks to the charts before they’re published.”
Spotify has taken similar action before, removing tracks uploaded via the AI music app Boomy in 2023 after detecting artificial streaming.
In June, a US federal judge dismissed a proposed class action that accused Spotify of allowing “billions” of fraudulent streams to inflate the play counts of Drake and other artists.
Kalshi currently lists dozens of ‘contracts’ tied to Spotify and Billboard chart results.Music Business Worldwide
Spotify recently faced a significant controversy involving the manipulation of streaming data, particularly concerning the song « Earrings » by Malcolm Todd. The track unexpectedly surged to the top of Spotify’s daily US chart, which raised suspicions that its rise was linked to activities on Kalshi, a regulated prediction market where users place bets on future events, including which songs would be the most-streamed.
The situation unfolded when it was reported that « Earrings » experienced a remarkable 70% increase in streams in a single day, leading to its No. 1 position on June 29. However, this spike in popularity was short-lived, as Spotify subsequently identified and removed over 500,000 streams that were deemed to be artificial and not from genuine listeners. Following the removal of these streams, « Earrings » dropped back to the No. 4 position on the charts.
Spotify emphasized that all streaming services are continuously battling against stream manipulation, stating that they employ advanced detection and mitigation practices. Furthermore, the company clarified that they do not pay royalties associated with manipulated streams. Importantly, there was no indication that Malcolm Todd or his team had any involvement in the stream manipulation.
In a bid to distance itself from any potential association with stream manipulation, Spotify requested that both Kalshi and another prediction market, Polymarket, remove their logos from their platforms. Kalshi’s COO, Luana Lopes Lara, noted that trading on music-related contracts on their platform had already exceeded $400 million by early 2026. However, by the time Spotify removed the inflated streams, Kalshi had already settled a market based on the misleading data, which had attracted around $3 million in trading.
Kalshi acknowledged the situation, expressing their commitment to investigating the matter in collaboration with Spotify. The suspicious surge in streams for « Earrings » was initially flagged by a Kalshi trader who analyzes Spotify’s streaming data to inform their betting strategies.
« Earrings » had been steadily climbing the charts prior to this sudden spike, and its original release was part of Todd’s upcoming mixtape « Sweet Boy, » which debuted on April 14. The single’s resurgence was also fueled by popularity on TikTok, contributing to its visibility on the platform.
In light of these events, Spotify indicated that they would be implementing additional checks before publishing charts to prevent future occurrences of similar manipulations. This is not the first time Spotify has dealt with artificial streaming; in 2023, they removed tracks uploaded through the AI music application Boomy after detecting fraudulent streams.
The incident has raised broader concerns about the integrity of streaming data and the potential for manipulation, especially as prediction markets become increasingly involved in the music industry. Earlier in June, a US federal judge dismissed a class action lawsuit that accused Spotify of permitting fraudulent streams to inflate play counts for high-profile artists like Drake.
Currently, Kalshi continues to offer a range of contracts related to Spotify and Billboard chart results, capitalizing on the intersection of music and betting markets. As the landscape evolves, the interplay between streaming services and prediction markets will likely remain a contentious issue, prompting ongoing scrutiny and potential regulatory discussions.
